0xcfc50541…a0c5sent to0x004395ed…34ac·#20,795,350·view on Etherscan
̴YES_OR_NO_QUERYq: title: Kamala positive favorability by next Friday?, description: This is a market will resolve to “Yes”, if Kamala Harris's favorable rating by FiveThirtyEight is higher than her unfavorable rating for any day between September 13 (inclusive) and September 20, 2024 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Harris's favorable rating must be higher than her unfavorable rating, ties will not qualify.
The favorability ratings for each day must be finalized before they are considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/kamala-harris/, specifically the favorability rating indicated by the purple "favorable" trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the favorability rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
This market may only resolve to "No" once the first data point after September 20, 2024 is published. If no such data point is available by September 27, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note the resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
res_data: p1: 0, p2: 1, p3: 0.5. Where p1 corresponds to No, p2 to Yes, p3 to unknown/50-50. Updates made by the question creator via the bulletin board at 0x6A9D222616C90FcA5754cd1333cFD9b7fb6a4F74 as described by https://polygonscan.com/tx/0xa14f01b115c4913624fc3f508f960f4dea252758e73c28f5f07f8e19d7bca066 should be considered.,initializer:91430cad2d3975766499717fa0d66a78d814e5c5,ooRequester:6a9d222616c90fca5754cd1333cfd9b7fb6a4f74,childRequester:ee3afe347d5c74317041e2618c49534daf887c24,childChainId:137̴YES_OR_NO_QUERYq: title: Will Fed cut interest rates 0 times in 2024?, description: The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the there no rate cuts by the Fed's December meeting (including the Dec meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
This market may resolve to "Yes" immediately after the statement from the Fed's December 2024 meeting has been released if there has been no rate cuts by then.
If there is a rate cut at any time within 2024, before the statement following the December FOMC meeting is released, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2024 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm., res_data: p1: 0, p2: 1, p3: 0.5. Where p1 corresponds to No, p2 to Yes, p3 to unknown. This request MUST only resolve to p1 or p2. Updates made by the question creator via the bulletin board at 0x2F5e3684cb1F318ec51b00Edba38d79Ac2c0aA9d should be considered.,initializer:91430cad2d3975766499717fa0d66a78d814e5c5,ooRequester:2f5e3684cb1f318ec51b00edba38d79ac2c0aa9d,childRequester:ee3afe347d5c74317041e2618c49534daf887c24,childChainId:137̴YES_OR_NO_QUERYq: title: Will Elon tweet 125-149 times?, description: If Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts between 125 (inclusive) and 149 (inclusive) times on X between September 13, 2024, 12:00 PM ET and September 20, 2024, 12:00 PM ET this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts posts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the ‘Post Counter’ figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source, res_data: p1: 0, p2: 1, p3: 0.5. Where p1 corresponds to No, p2 to Yes, p3 to unknown. This request MUST only resolve to p1 or p2. Updates made by the question creator via the bulletin board at 0x2F5e3684cb1F318ec51b00Edba38d79Ac2c0aA9d should be considered.,initializer:91430cad2d3975766499717fa0d66a78d814e5c5,ooRequester:2f5e3684cb1f318ec51b00edba38d79ac2c0aa9d,childRequester:ee3afe347d5c74317041e2618c49534daf887c24,childChainId:137